Two founders of the Paris Climate Agreement and chief UN negotiators, Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac, released the book The Future We Choose on 25 February 2020. In it they outline, among other things, a scenario of a future world that they believe we should create. The translation of the book appeared on February 27: We determine the future. Team Blogzynergy shares some passages from this ‘best case scenario’ for the climate in 2050.
The world we have to create
It is 2050. We have managed to halve emissions every decade since 2020. We are on our way to a world that will be no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer in 2100.
In most places in the world the air is humid and fresh, even in cities. It looks like you are walking in a forest and you probably do that too. The air is cleaner than it has been since the industrial revolution. For that you have to thank the trees. They are everywhere.
Afforestation was not the only solution, but the trees gave us the time we needed to overcome carbon emissions. Donations from companies and individuals provided funding for the largest tree planting campaign ever. When we started, it was purely practical, a tactic to combat climate change by moving the carbon: the trees removed the carbon dioxide from the air, separated oxygen and returned the carbon where it belongs: into the ground. Of course this helps to reduce climate change, but there were more benefits. At every sensory level, the feeling of living on what has again become a green planet has changed completely, especially in cities. Cities have never been so good to live in. With more trees and much fewer cars, it has proved possible to make entire streets suitable for urban agriculture and playgrounds for children. Every empty spot and every dark, dead-end alley has been given a new purpose and is now planted with a shady grove. A vegetable or flower garden has been installed on every roof. Blind walls that were once filled with graffiti are now covered with green climbing plants.
For the developed countries, the general change that required a shift to renewable energy was sometimes an uncomfortable transition, as old infrastructure often had to be adjusted and old things had to be done in new ways. But for the developing countries it marked the beginning of a new era. The majority of the infrastructure needed for economic growth and poverty reduction was built according to the new standards: low carbon emissions and a high capacity for recovery. In remote areas, the billion people who did not have electricity at the start of the 21st century now get energy from the solar collectors on their own roof or from jointly managed wind turbines. This new access opened the door for so much more. Large population groups have made a leap towards improved sanitation, education and health care. People who only had trouble getting clean water can now provide the entire family with it. Children can also learn in the evening. Hospitals can now also work efficiently in remote areas.
Construction works all over the world make more of what they need than just electricity. All buildings collect rainwater and manage their own water use. With sustainable electricity sources, local desalination became possible, which means that clean drinking water can now be produced wherever needed in the world. We also use this water for hydroponics (growing plants on water to which nutrients have been added), flushing the toilet and for the shower. We have successfully rebuilt, organized and structured our lives to live more locally. Although energy prices have fallen enormously, we still opt for life and work close to home rather than commuting. Thanks to the better connections, many people now also work at home,
We make communities stronger. As a child you may have seen the neighbors only fleetingly. But to make things cheaper, cleaner and more sustainable, every part of your life is now more locally designed. Things that you did alone are now being carried out jointly – growing vegetables, collecting rainwater, composting. Resources and responsibilities are now shared. At first you resisted this solidarity – you were used to doing things yourself and within the privacy of your own home. But soon the camaraderie and the unexpected new support network started to feel good, something to hold high. For most people, the new way of life has proven to be a better recipe for happiness.
International air traffic has changed completely. Biofuels have replaced kerosene. Communication technology is now so advanced that we can participate in meetings anywhere in the world without having to travel. Civil air traffic still exists, but is used much less and is extremely expensive. Thanks to the fact that a lot of work is becoming more and more decentralized and can be carried out almost anywhere, people save for their ‘big vacation’: international journeys of weeks or months instead of trips of a few days. If you live in Europe and want to visit the United States, you can even plan to stay a few months or longer and view the entire continent using local public transportation with zero emissions.
Although we have successfully reduced carbon dioxide emissions, we are still confronted with the effects of record levels in the atmosphere of the past. The poorly degrading greenhouse gases can go nowhere else than to our already highly polluted atmosphere and they cause increasing extreme weather conditions – albeit less than if we had continued to burn fossil fuels. Glaciers and polar ice are still melting and the sea level keeps rising. Severe droughts and desertification are taking place in areas such as the western United States, the Mediterranean and parts of China. The constant extreme weather and the decline of resources continue to reinforce existing differences in income, health, food security and water availability. But now governments have acknowledged the factors of climate change as the amplifiers of the threat they are. Thanks to that awareness, we are now able to predict problems and to fight them before they end up with humanitarian disasters. So while many people are still in danger every day, the situation is not as dramatic or chaotic as it could have been. The economies in developing countries are strong and surprising global coalitions have formed with a new sense of confidence. If a population needs help right now, there is political will and money available to give that help. Thanks to that awareness, we are now able to predict problems and to fight them before they end up with humanitarian disasters. So while many people are still in danger every day, the situation is not as dramatic or chaotic as it could have been. The economies in developing countries are strong and surprising global coalitions have formed with a new sense of confidence. If a population needs help right now, there is political will and money available to give that help. Thanks to that awareness, we are now able to predict problems and to fight them before they end up with humanitarian disasters. So while many people are still in danger every day, the situation is not as dramatic or chaotic as it could have been. The economies in developing countries are strong and surprising global coalitions have formed with a new sense of confidence. If a population needs help right now, there is political will and money available to give that help.
The refugee situation that has lasted for decades is still a source of disagreement and conflict. But fifteen years ago we stopped calling it a crisis. Countries agreed on guidelines for controlling the influx of refugees – on how to assimilate populations without problems, on how to distribute aid and money, and on how tasks should be distributed within a certain region. The agreements are adhered to most of the time, but occasionally problems arise when a country tends to fascism after a few elections.
The spirit of the times has also changed enormously. How we think about the world is now very different. And unexpectedly how we think about the other person.
When the alarm bells started to ring in 2020, mainly thanks to the youth, we realized that we had gone too far with our consumption, competition and greedy self-interest. Our dedication to those values and our pursuit of profit and status had led us to deal with our environment like a steamroller. As a species, we continued uncontrollably, resulting in the near-demise of our world. We can no longer close our eyes to what is happening on a tangible, geophysical level, if you despise recovery, cooperation and a sense of community: imminent destruction.
To withdraw ourselves from this self-destruction would have been impossible if we had not shifted our mindset and priorities, if we had not realized that doing what is good for humanity goes hand in hand with doing what is good for the earth. The most fundamental change was that we, collectively, as governments, citizens and companies, started to adopt a new adage: “Is it good for humanity?”